Publications
While our publications are all listed here, they are easier to browse on our research page.
How Rethink Priorities is Addressing Risk and Uncertainty
This is the tenth post in the Worldview Investigations Team’s sequence of posts—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation (CURVE). In this post, Rethink Priorities’ Co-CEOs explain how the organization is addressing risk and uncertainty.
Rethink Priorities’ Cross-Cause Cost-Effectiveness Model
This is the ninth post in the Worldview Investigations Team’s sequence of posts—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation (CURVE). This post introduces Rethink Priorities’ cross-cause cost-effectiveness model.
Is x-risk cost-effective if we only count a few generations?
This is the eighth post in the Worldview Investigations Team’s sequence of posts—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation (CURVE). This post examines whether x-risk the most cost-effective issue to focus on if we count only the next few generations.
Uncertainty over time and Bayesian updating
This is the seventh post in the Worldview Investigations Team’s sequence of posts—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation (CURVE). This post examines how uncertainty increases over time and estimates a model of how a Bayesian would interpret increasingly uncertain forecasts.
Charting the precipice
This is the sixth post in the Worldview Investigations Team’s sequence of posts—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation (CURVE). This report considers a time of perils-based case for prioritizing existential risk mitigation.
How bad would human extinction be?
This is the fifth post in the Worldview Investigations Team’s sequence of posts—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation (CURVE). This report builds on the model originally introduced by Toby Ord on how to estimate the value of existential risk mitigation.
How can risk aversion affect your cause prioritization?
Imagine you’re faced with the following two choices, A and B, and you can push a button to select one or the other to occur. If you choose A, you will save 10 people’s lives with 99% certainty. If you choose B, you have a 1% chance of saving 1,200 people’s lives and a 99% chance of saving none. Which would you choose? This is the fourth post in the CURVE sequence.
Prioritizing animals of uncertain sentience
This is the third post in the CURVE—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation—series. In this post, Hayley Clatterbuck examines the risks and rewards of prioritizing animals of uncertain sentience (such as shrimps).
If contractualism, then AMF
This is the second post in the CURVE—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation—series. In this post, the researchers discuss the implications of contractualism for cause prioritization.
Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation
We want to help others as much as we can, but knowing how to do that is complex. The Worldview Investigations Team explores this topic in their new sequence of posts—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation (CURVE).